If you had a chance to see the Skins / Eagles game on Monday night - you likely saw what I did - McNabb looked OFF. His receivers were getting open - but the passes were too high or just plain missed the receiver.
Carson Palmer came back from a similar injury last year. His accuracy, while good, was not at his 2005 levels.
2005 16 games - 345 completions / 509 attempts - 67.8%
2006 16 games - 324 completions / 520 attempts - 62.3%
A number of fantasy experts are pointing to McNabb's accuracy suffering in a comparable manner. They are predicting that his accuracy numbers will be about 5% lower than expectations. I would say that I agree - McNabb's best seasons (so far) were 2004 and 2006. These were the years where the Eagles acquired Terrell Owens and Donte Stallworth.
If we take McNabb's numbers from those years...
2004 15 games - 300 completions / 469 attempts - 64%
2006 10 games - 180 completions / 316 attempts - 57%
In the best case scenario, we're likely looking at a 54 / 55% completion rate.
That's pretty LOW!!
If you look further, you'll see that the Eagles top two receivers (Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis) might be in for a downturn in their numbers. I'll admit that two games is not really a great sample size to make any conclusions, but I've included the 2007 numbers just for emphasis.
Kevin Curtis
2005 - 16 games - 60 receptions / 90 pass targets - 62%
2006 - 16 games - 40 receptions / 57 pass targets - 70%
2007 - 2 games - 6 receptions / 16 pass targets - 37%
Reggie Brown
2005 - 16 games - 43 receptions / 90 pass targets - 51%
2006 - 16 games - 46 receptions / 92 pass targets - 50%
2007 - 2 games - 3 receptions / 14 pass targets - 21%
Even though Brown is in his "magical" third year for a receiver, it may be a tough one. His catch percentage has never been that great historically....and I don't think the outlook is great for the Eagles passing game while we wait for McNabb to recover fully from the knee injury.
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