Thursday, September 20, 2007

Glenn Holt!


Having lost out on the DeShawn Wynn sweepstakes, I've put a waiver claim in for Steve...I mean Glenn Holt!

I figure that a Bengals WR (even the 3rd receiver) has some value. Chris Henry is out until after week 8. And it might be a little longer - according to this report - Henry recently had a visit form the police about a stolen rental car.

Worth a flier, and all I had to do was to drop Leon Washington (he seems buried on the bench after week two)....TJones was struggling and Mangenius didn't change it up at all.

Who knows, maybe they'll play Leon at WR instead of Justin "I just dropped a deuce...I mean the ball" McCareins.

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

DeShawn Wynn - hot pickup this week - and this guy called it...

Prior to the Packers / Giants game, Tyler Dunne (from scouts.com) indicated that the Pack should get Wynn more touches to see exactly what they had in the runner.

Tyler's report goes more in depth about Wynn, including interesting insight into Wynn's lack of hesitation (something currently bothering Brandon Jackson).

You can see some postgame analysis from packers.com and note a comment about Mike McCarthy's game plan involving their running backs.

Wynn ended up with 10 rushes for 50 yards, 2TDs and 2 receptions for 18 yards.

McNabb's accuracy doomed? A look inside the numbers.

If you had a chance to see the Skins / Eagles game on Monday night - you likely saw what I did - McNabb looked OFF. His receivers were getting open - but the passes were too high or just plain missed the receiver.

Carson Palmer came back from a similar injury last year. His accuracy, while good, was not at his 2005 levels.

2005 16 games - 345 completions / 509 attempts - 67.8%
2006 16 games - 324 completions / 520 attempts - 62.3%

A number of fantasy experts are pointing to McNabb's accuracy suffering in a comparable manner. They are predicting that his accuracy numbers will be about 5% lower than expectations. I would say that I agree - McNabb's best seasons (so far) were 2004 and 2006. These were the years where the Eagles acquired Terrell Owens and Donte Stallworth.

If we take McNabb's numbers from those years...

2004 15 games - 300 completions / 469 attempts - 64%
2006 10 games - 180 completions / 316 attempts - 57%

In the best case scenario, we're likely looking at a 54 / 55% completion rate.

That's pretty LOW!!

If you look further, you'll see that the Eagles top two receivers (Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis) might be in for a downturn in their numbers. I'll admit that two games is not really a great sample size to make any conclusions, but I've included the 2007 numbers just for emphasis.

Kevin Curtis
2005 - 16 games - 60 receptions / 90 pass targets - 62%
2006 - 16 games - 40 receptions / 57 pass targets - 70%
2007 - 2 games - 6 receptions / 16 pass targets - 37%

Reggie Brown
2005 - 16 games - 43 receptions / 90 pass targets - 51%
2006 - 16 games - 46 receptions / 92 pass targets - 50%
2007 - 2 games - 3 receptions / 14 pass targets - 21%

Even though Brown is in his "magical" third year for a receiver, it may be a tough one. His catch percentage has never been that great historically....and I don't think the outlook is great for the Eagles passing game while we wait for McNabb to recover fully from the knee injury.

Monday, September 17, 2007

The Agony of a Lineup Decision...



HEAP

VS.

BROWN





Do you agonize over a lineup decision? In the leagues I really care about - it often comes down to a judgement call. Often in Fantasy Football, this is hard to determine and in a number of cases very random.

This past week, I had one decision that I really waffled on a number of times. It came down to starting Reggie Brown over Todd Heap.

My weekly game wouldn't have been even close if Chad Johnson hadn't put up a whopping 36+ points against me. The rest of my opponents team did hardly anything - although Adrian Peterson had an impressive showing for the Vikes without his fullback, Tony Richardson, playing.

In my league, you can start a TE over a WR. With the way the Jets got torched in week one, I was supremely tempted to play Heap over a weaker linebacker corps. Heap's stats wouldn't have been as impressive if his TD catch yesterday had not been ruled complete by an instant replay call.

Football, while measured in yards, is surely a game of inches. Furthermore, Wouldn't have Tony Gonzalez been a better play if Dwayne Bowe hadn't stepped in front of him to grab a TD pass yesterday?

Here's to hoping Reggie Brown goes out and scores a TD and grabs a couple of catches - but it doesn't make watching tonights game any less agonizing.

Do you have similar problems with your lineups?