While doing some research on my favorite man-crush of the moment, Pierre Thomas, I noticed a note RE: Aaron Stecker from the folks at KFFL in my keeper league.
"New Orleans Saints RB Aaron Stecker will take a bulk of RB Deuce McAllister's (ACL) carries for the rest of the season. McAllister has been placed on Injured Reserve."
Who are these people? Stecker? Get most of McAllister's carries? Huh?
Perhaps we forgot that when Bush came to the team in 2006, Stecker had 4 carries for 11 yards. Doesn't that say something when a player that has roughly the same skill set as your newly drafted star player can't make the field?
Moving on...you'll also note that Sean Payton had a lot of good things to say about Pierre Thomas in this Thursday's press conference. I took special interest in the part of Payton's conference where he compares Thomas' effort to that of Colston's training camp of 2006. My bunny ears just perked up on that one.
I don't think Coach Payton has an idea about how the whole running back situation is going to turn out yet, but he's already said that Bush is the featured back for the week. The Panthers can make a lot of teams look good, so if Bush has a big game, I would temper that enthusiasm. (I like Bush a lot, but I'm not sold on him getting the tough yards.)
If the Saints are going to pound the ball, which I think they're going to do to get their leaky defense off the field as much as possible - you're looking at possibly 35+ running plays.
From Sean Payton - RE: Reggie Bush this week:
"From a numbers standpoint, you're still looking at...maybe not as many receptions and some more carries - 18 to 20 (per game)"
That's about 15 or so carries that will be hanging out there - I think Pierre shows some flashes this week - and in a week or two, I would expect Stecker to be back on mostly special teams and maybe some passing downs.
Friday, October 5, 2007
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
A quarterback mystery
Just to prove that most of us fantasy football people don't really know what we're talking about anyway - in one of my leagues Brett Favre outscored Tom Brady - check out the scoring from Week 4 below.
Favre, Brett GBP 24.73
Brady, Tom NEP 21.27
Schaub, Matt HOU 20.29
McNair, Steve BAL 19.94
Harrington, Joey ATL 18.41
Hasselbeck, Matt SEA 17.97
Griese, Brian CHI QB 17.02
Kitna, Jon DET QB 16.34
Roethlisberger, Ben PIT 15.23
Garcia, Jeff TBB QB 14.57
Huard, Damon KCC QB 14.33
Pennington, Chad NYJ 14.05
Anderson, Derek CLE 13.18
And I would also like to point out that Derek Anderson also outscored Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning and Donovan McNabb. Who knew?
Fantasy troubles? Look no further than your offensive line...
I don't hear about this subject often enough in Fantasy Football, so I thought I would add some information to it.
I think the OL is extremely important to your fantasy team. In fact, I think you should follow the ups and downs of any offensive line that is associated with your quarterback or running back.
In their 2007 Football Prospectus, the Football Outsiders wrote a small article on the impact of a good defense on your fantasy players. Long story short, they found that a "stud" RB was likely to preform (on average) worse against a great run defense than was his likely replacement that was facing an average or below average run defense. The same thing applied to the quaterback position, but not as much to the wide receivers. Here is where your offensive line comes into play - they need to hold off the attack of an aggressive defense - and they need all their starters to do it.
Wondering why some of your favorite fantasy players are struggling? Here are some potential reasons why...
The Rams OL is a mess. Even when Steven Jackson comes back, he is in trouble. The Rams are without left tackle Orlando Pace, their original right and left guards, a backup tackle...and now they lost Adam Goldberg (starting right tackle) for at least 4 weeks.
The Bears OL took the blame for the loss in Detroit. For stretches of the game, they were without one of their best lineman John Tait - who sprained his ankle.
The Giants sacked the Eagles - TWELVE times on Sunday night? Huh? This is the same Giants team that didn't have secondary to stop anybody...and then they make McNabb look silly! I think this partly also had to do with Westbrook being out - McNabb had no one to dump off to to break a big play when the rush was on.
The Raiders OL - looking great - and rolling over everyone. One of the reasons for Lamont Jordan's success early. I would think that anyone filling in for Jordan (see Dominic Rhodes) might be as successful as Jordan - Fargas put up over 170 yards last week. Justin Fargas!
The Patriots OL is also looking dominant. Sure - Tom Brady is playing great. So is Randy Moss. But have you seen the time that Brady has had to throw the ball?
The Browns - yeah, they have some play makers in Winslow and Braylon Edwards. They've made great plays for sure. But how about that offensive line? Even with the injuries (see LeCharles Bentley), they've jelled great - and now the offense is successful. Even against the Ravens!
In summary, when looking at difficult matchups from week to week...also evaluate how your players offensive line is playing...and use that to your advantage.
I think the OL is extremely important to your fantasy team. In fact, I think you should follow the ups and downs of any offensive line that is associated with your quarterback or running back.
In their 2007 Football Prospectus, the Football Outsiders wrote a small article on the impact of a good defense on your fantasy players. Long story short, they found that a "stud" RB was likely to preform (on average) worse against a great run defense than was his likely replacement that was facing an average or below average run defense. The same thing applied to the quaterback position, but not as much to the wide receivers. Here is where your offensive line comes into play - they need to hold off the attack of an aggressive defense - and they need all their starters to do it.
Wondering why some of your favorite fantasy players are struggling? Here are some potential reasons why...
The Rams OL is a mess. Even when Steven Jackson comes back, he is in trouble. The Rams are without left tackle Orlando Pace, their original right and left guards, a backup tackle...and now they lost Adam Goldberg (starting right tackle) for at least 4 weeks.
The Bears OL took the blame for the loss in Detroit. For stretches of the game, they were without one of their best lineman John Tait - who sprained his ankle.
The Giants sacked the Eagles - TWELVE times on Sunday night? Huh? This is the same Giants team that didn't have secondary to stop anybody...and then they make McNabb look silly! I think this partly also had to do with Westbrook being out - McNabb had no one to dump off to to break a big play when the rush was on.
The Raiders OL - looking great - and rolling over everyone. One of the reasons for Lamont Jordan's success early. I would think that anyone filling in for Jordan (see Dominic Rhodes) might be as successful as Jordan - Fargas put up over 170 yards last week. Justin Fargas!
The Patriots OL is also looking dominant. Sure - Tom Brady is playing great. So is Randy Moss. But have you seen the time that Brady has had to throw the ball?
The Browns - yeah, they have some play makers in Winslow and Braylon Edwards. They've made great plays for sure. But how about that offensive line? Even with the injuries (see LeCharles Bentley), they've jelled great - and now the offense is successful. Even against the Ravens!
In summary, when looking at difficult matchups from week to week...also evaluate how your players offensive line is playing...and use that to your advantage.
Week 4 musings
Looking back at the week that was a number of people have mentioned to me what a wacky week it was.
I have to agree. In one of my leagues going into last night, I had Laurence Maroney starting with Sammy Morris on the bench. I heard that Maroney was out about half an hour before game time, so I substituted Sammy Morris.
Imagine my surprise when early on Morris breaks off a 49 yard run. I guess if Jamal Lewis can run on the Bengals, then just about anybody can.
Morris ended up having a great game for me, but ultimately my team fell short by two points - or basically those two yards that would have yielded Morris a TD. He was short on his way to the end zone on the 49 yard run.
More often than not, I find that my team is dramatically influenced by these types of situations in football. There isn't such a dramatic difference in Baseball or Basketball - one of the reaons why I like and dislkike football at the same time.
In this one league, in three consecutive weeks I have lost by 4 points, won by one point, and lost by 2.
Crazy.
I have to agree. In one of my leagues going into last night, I had Laurence Maroney starting with Sammy Morris on the bench. I heard that Maroney was out about half an hour before game time, so I substituted Sammy Morris.
Imagine my surprise when early on Morris breaks off a 49 yard run. I guess if Jamal Lewis can run on the Bengals, then just about anybody can.
Morris ended up having a great game for me, but ultimately my team fell short by two points - or basically those two yards that would have yielded Morris a TD. He was short on his way to the end zone on the 49 yard run.
More often than not, I find that my team is dramatically influenced by these types of situations in football. There isn't such a dramatic difference in Baseball or Basketball - one of the reaons why I like and dislkike football at the same time.
In this one league, in three consecutive weeks I have lost by 4 points, won by one point, and lost by 2.
Crazy.
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